Archive - MacroPolo Econ

MP Econ Issue 21: China Needs More Inflation To Steady a Wobbly Property Sector

In our 1H Macro Outlook, we highlighted property as a key downside risk for growth in 2024. While property sales were already slowing down at the end of…

Apr 19

February 2024

MP Econ Issue 20: China’s First Half Economic Outlook

In this special feature, we are including our 1H2024 Outlook. The PDF report can be downloaded here and will also go live on our website tomorrow…

Feb 7

October 2023

MP Econ Issue 19: China Economy and Debt

By Damien Ma and Houze Song Like many, we have been grappling with what to make of the Chinese economy’s prospects. It is evident that serious risks…

Oct 19, 2023 •

July 2023

MP Econ Issue 18: 3Q2023 Outlook: Chinese Economy Bottoms Out

Download 3Q2023 Outlook Key Takeaways: Quarterly growth will likely bottom out at ~4%, as no “big bang” stimulus is forthcoming. Stimulus measures will…

Jul 31, 2023

May 2023

MP Econ Issue 17: Where’s the Demand for the Chinese Yuan?

Ever since the global financial crisis, prognostications of the demise of the US dollar have come and gone. Now that the idea of a “common BRIC…

May 25, 2023

March 2023

MP Econ Issue 16: US Regional Bank Crisis Will Affect How China Manages Financial Risk

While the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis won’t have a direct impact on China, it will affect how Beijing manages risk among its own…

Mar 20, 2023

February 2023

MP Econ Issue 15: Default Position: LGFV Defaults Loom

As our “China’s Debt Hangover” has shown, China will need to reckon with its local debt problem sooner rather than later. Since 2022, the property…

Feb 21, 2023

January 2023

MP Econ Issue 14: China’s First Quarter Economic Outlook

In this special feature, we are including our 1Q2023 Outlook. Excerpts of the takeaways and introduction are below; the full report can be accessed…

Jan 30, 2023

December 2022

MP Econ Issue 13: Point of No Return: Beijing’s Move to Covid Coexistence Is Here to Stay

With China’s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), markets will be looking for any pro-growth signals after a year of turbulence. But the…

Dec 12, 2022 •

November 2022

MP Econ Issue 12: China’s Giant Trade Surplus Isn’t a Sign of Economic Strength

For those looking for a bright spot in the Chinese economy, trade is the most obvious. China is on its way to a record trade surplus that is expected to…

Nov 29, 2022 •

August 2022

MP Econ Issue 11: Who’s Paying for the Property Crisis? Not Local Governments

Recent signs have reinforced the fact that Beijing is reluctant to bail out troubled property developers, a case I made previously. The July Politburo…

Aug 16, 2022 •

February 2022

MP Econ Issue 10: China’s Property Sector Is Smaller Than Meets the Eye

In our recent outlook, I estimated that the property sector’s correction will shave just 0.6 percentage points off of China’s headline growth. This…

Feb 23, 2022 •

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