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While the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis won’t have a direct impact on China, it will affect how Beijing manages risk among its own…

February 2023

As our “China’s Debt Hangover” has shown, China will need to reckon with its local debt problem sooner rather than later. Since 2022, the property…
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January 2023

In this special feature, we are including our 1Q2023 Outlook. Excerpts of the takeaways and introduction are below; the full report can be accessed…

December 2022

With China’s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), markets will be looking for any pro-growth signals after a year of turbulence. But the…
MacroPolo Econ

November 2022

For those looking for a bright spot in the Chinese economy, trade is the most obvious. China is on its way to a record trade surplus that is expected to…
MacroPolo Econ

August 2022

Recent signs have reinforced the fact that Beijing is reluctant to bail out troubled property developers, a case I made previously. The July Politburo…
MacroPolo Econ

February 2022

In our recent outlook, I estimated that the property sector’s correction will shave just 0.6 percentage points off of China’s headline growth. This…
MacroPolo Econ
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December 2021

Dear readers, In this special issue, we are sharing my assessment of the long-term growth impact of China’s coming property correction. While it seems…
MacroPolo Econ

October 2021

As we had anticipated last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has begun taking actions to stabilize the property sector. On September 27, the PBOC…
MacroPolo Econ

September 2021

Given the intense focus on the Evergrande situation, this special issue of MP Econ provides a timely view of how I think the crisis will unfold. In the…
MacroPolo Econ

August 2021

America’s Silicon Valley and China’s Silicon Delta share a serious problem: housing affordability. For San Francisco, the astronomical price of housing…
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February 2021

China’s economic prospects have long elicited polarizing opinions. For those who subscribe to the “Japan-like stagnation” scenario for China’s future…
MacroPolo Econ
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